Public spending and economic growth: Evidence from the Western Balkans

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between public expenditures, foreign investments, and the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the years 2002-2021 in the countries of the Western Balkans (BB6) and Croatia. The analysis includes data on $2.8 trillion of GDP, $668 billion of public expenditures, and $160 billion of FDI for these states. The methodology used in this study is based on a detailed examination of public expenditures and their impact on the Gross Domestic Product. This article investigates two hypotheses, thoroughly assessing their impact on GDP growth. Through the use of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) econometric model, concrete results with over 95% reliability have been obtained. The variables are determined based on multiple regressions for the findings we will obtain based on econometric calculations using the fixed effects, standard deviation, mean, and linear regression models. The findings of this study relate directly to the stated aims and objectives of the publication. The results presented in the study are an essential component of the study's conclusions. We found that some independent factors have a uniform impact on GDP growth, while others have a significant impact on real growth. Also, our findings confirm economic theories that argue that an increase in government spending leads to an increase in GDP. The data show that public investment in the Western Balkans has historically been overlooked, a gap in the literature that our research attempts to fill.