An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Commercial Banks’ Lending on Economic Development of Nigeria

Abstract

The pace of development in Nigeria economy which is rich in oil is not commensurate with the revenue from crude oil exports coupled with the increasing banking credit to the economy. This raises a question on efficiency and effectiveness of banks’ in discharging it function of credit mobilization and distribution of resources to deficit economic units. In this regard, this study empirically assesses the impact of commercial banks’ lending on economic development of Nigeria from 1986 to 2015 by specifically ascertaining the impact of commercial banks’ lending on real gross domestic product and index of industrial production. The data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin were diagnosed for serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and Ramsey Reset model fitness specification and stationarity. The Johansen co-integration envisaged a long run relationship between commercial banks’ lending and gross domestic product but such could be said for index of industrial production. The granger impact assessment result shows that commercial banks’ lending has significant impact on real gross domestic product and real gross domestic product on the other hand, has significant impact on credit to private sector. Index of industrial production was not significantly influenced by commercial banks’ lending activities. The vector error correction model depicts that for achievement of long term growth and development of the Nigerian economy, commercial banks’ lending is very pivotal as the high interest rate charged by commercial banks’ remain a threat to the positive influence of banks’ credit to the economy. The Central Bank of Nigeria should implement regulation to stop banks from centring loans and advances to a particular sector which is, oil and gas to improve credit flow to other strategic sectors, especially agriculture and industries to increase their contributions to gross domestic product of Nigeria. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria should complement fiscal policies of the government to reduce the level of inflation in country, having regard to its negative effect on index of industrial production.